Time for an Eastern European nuclear deterrent?
As Russia continues its war in Ukraine and Donald Trump looks ever more likely to win the next US presidential election — threatening the viability of the NATO alliance — it is time for countries in Eastern and Northern Europe to think the hitherto unthinkable: creating their own, regionally-based nuclear deterrent.
While the United States has long been seen as a guarantor of security for NATO member states, Trump’s rhetoric and likely isolationist polices have undermines the reliability of this commitment. In such uncertain times, it is prudent for European nations to reassess their defense strategies and explore alternative measures to ensure their sovereignty and protection.
Poland, situated at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe, finds itself in a strategically significant position. With its strong military capabilities and geopolitical importance, Poland has already been a military frontrunner. The Warsaw government is spending 3.9% of gross domestic product into military goals, almost twice NATO’s current 2% target. Sweden has also boosted its planned defence budget, also exceeding the NATO target.
But the new government in Poland should consider going further, leading the charge in spearheading a collaborative effort to establish a regional nuclear deterrent. Teaming up with the Baltic states, including Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as the Nordic countries, Poland could form a formidable sub-alliance to deter potential aggression.
The rationale behind pursuing a regional nuclear deterrent lies in the principle of collective security and mutual defense. By pooling resources and expertise, participating nations can enhance their deterrence capabilities and send a clear message to adversaries that any aggression will be met with a swift and decisive response. Moreover, a regionally-based nuclear deterrent could serve as a stabilizing force, discouraging Russia from attempting to exert undue influence or take advantage of a US withdrawal from NATO.
The Polish have already started reframing the issue of an eastern European nuclear deterrent. Two years ago, Polish President Andrzej Duda said Warsaw had asked the U.S. for nuclear weapons to be stationed in Poland. Developing a sovereign capability is the next logical step.
Critics of a sovereign ‘Eastern deterrent’ might argue that pursuing nuclear weapons could escalate tensions and trigger an arms race in Europe. The costs would also be considerable, running into the billions. And many countries especially in the Nordic region, have always had an uneasy relationship with nuclear weapons weaponry, ostensibly opposed but in reality benefiting for US nuclear defence; they would have to overcome their nuclear schizophrenia. Poland for its part has been nuclear-free since the days of the Warsaw Pact while long-discounted Polish research into thermonuclear weapons in the 1970s remains shrouded in mystery.
However, having a genuine nuclear deterrent is more likely to deter Russia than encourage conflict; it will reduce the likelihood of aggression and miscalculation. Financing could be a joint endeavour, like Saudi Arabia’s reported financing of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent, with other European allies supporting the cost.
Furthermore, the development of a regional nuclear deterrent would not occur in isolation but would complement existing European security arrangements, including membership in NATO. While the alliance has been the cornerstone of European security for decades, recent developments have underscored the need for additional measures to reinforce defense capabilities. Rather than replacing NATO, a regional nuclear deterrent would serve as a supplementary layer of defense, providing an extra line of deterrence against potential threats from Russia.
Practical considerations, such as technological expertise, infrastructure requirements, cost and diplomatic coordination, would need to be addressed. However, the shared interests and common security concerns among participating nations provide a solid foundation for collaboration. Through joint research, training exercises, and policy coordination, Poland, the Baltic states, and the Nordic countries can lay the groundwork for a credible and effective deterrent capability.
The prospect of President Trump’s return to power in the United States and the potential ramifications for NATO necessitate a proactive approach to security in Eastern and Northern Europe beyond what has been already begun.
By developing a regionally-based nuclear deterrent in collaboration with Poland, the Baltic states, and the Nordic countries, these nations could bolster their defense capabilities and safeguard their sovereignty. While challenges undoubtedly exist, the benefits of enhanced deterrence and collective security far outweigh the risks. Now is the time for bold leadership and decisive action to ensure the peace and stability of the region for generations to come.
